The Rise and Fall of Bear Stearns贝尔史登公司的兴衰 azw3 chm 地址 kindle 阿里云 下载 umd pdf

On March 16, 2008, Alan Greenberg, former CEO and current chairman of the executive committee of Bear Stearns, found himself in the company’s offices on a Sunday. More remarkable by far than the fact that he was in the office on a Sunday is what he was doing: participating in a meeting of the board of directors to discuss selling the company he had worked decades to build for a fraction of what it had been worth as little as ten days earlier. In less than a week the value of Bear Stearns had diminished by tens of billions of dollars. As Greenberg recalls, "our most unassailable assumption—that Bear Stearns, an independent investment firm with a proud eighty-five-year history, would be in business tomorrow—had been extinguished. . . . What was it, exactly, that had happened, and how, and why?" This book provides answers to those questions from one of Wall Street’s most respected figures, the man most closely identified with Bear Stearns’ decades of success.

The Rise and Fall of Bear Stearns is Alan Greenberg’s remarkable story of ascending to the top of one of Wall Street’s venerable powerhouse financial institutions. After joining Bear Stearns in 1949, Greenberg rose to become formally head of the firm in 1978. No one knows the history of Bear Stearns as he does; no one participated in more key decisions, right into the company’s final days. Greenberg offers an honest, clear-eyed assessment of how the collapse of the company surprised him and other top executives, and he explains who he thinks was responsible. This is a candid, fascinating account of a storied career and its stunning conclusion.

"Whoever coined the adage about hindsight being twenty-twenty didn’t make any allowance for astigmatism or myopia. Whose hindsight? And from what distance? A picture clarifies or blurs with the passage of time, and whatever image emanates at a given instant is colored by the biases of the observer. Knowing that my perceptions of the fall of Bear Stearns are inevitably somewhat subjective, I’ve tried to make sense of exactly what happened when and how this or that development along the way contributed to the ultimate outcome. I’ve wanted to get a fix on the moment when we ceased controlling our own destiny—not out of intramural curiosity but because that loss of control resonated and replicated globally. For those of us who across decades gave so much of ourselves to Bear Stearns, what took place during a single week in March 2008 was a watershed in our lives. With sufficient time and distance, as the context expanded, we could recognize it as the signal event of an enormous disruption that the world will be struggling to recover from for years to come."

—from THE RISE AND FALL OF BEAR STEARNS

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本章用实证研究结果来支持上述观点，即资本回报率、增长率和自有现金流决定了资本市场中的价值：1、较高回报和较高增长率的公司在股票市场上有较高的价值；2、对股票估值而言，市场主要关注长期而不是短期的经济基本面；3、股票市场完全有能力洞察会计信息背后的经济基本面；4、股票市场的市值能够正确反映背后的经济基本面；5、整个市场的价格偏离是短暂的

未达到短期每股收益目标本身并不会导致股价下跌。但是，许多情况下，投资者只能用短期数据来估测公司长期绩效。在这种情况下，他们会把最近的每股收益表现看做长期绩效下滑或管理层失去市场信任的象征，这样未达到目标就会降低公司的股价

市场在下列三种情况下不能反映经济基本面：1、非理性的投资者行为；2、不同投资者出现系统性行为模式；3、金融市场套利的限制性因素

A company’s value stems from its ability to earn a healthy return on invested capital (ROIC) and its ability to grow.

As we compare these measures, note that all of them apply this important principle: any measure of return on capital should be based on the amount invested, not the current market value of the company or its assets.

CFROI is more appropriate in businesses where investments are very lumpy. As two extreme examples, think of infrastructure projects or hydroelectric power plants. These require very substantial up-front investments that generate relatively stable cash flows without significant investments in maintenance or overhauling over many years or even decades. Although accounting conventions may require that the assets be depreciated, their net capital base has little bearing on the capacity to generate cash flows. ROIC often rises to levels that are unrelated to the project’s economic return (IRR), but CFROI will be much closer to the IRR because the operating cash flows are very stable.

In contrast, ROIC is likely to be a better estimate of the underlying IRR in businesses where investments occu...

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